One of the teams - either the big pre-finals favorite Nuggets, or the eighth-seeded, nothing-to-lose Heat - is going to be two wins away from a title. Moods will change by the end of Wednesday night. There wasn’t a lot of worry coming from either side Tuesday, when the teams had to go through the obligatory public workouts as part of the NBA media off-day slate. But we cannot give them open looks, and that was the main key.” “Just don’t get them wide-open looks,” said Denver’s Nikola Jokic, who is averaging 34 points, 10.5 rebounds and nine assists in his first two finals games. Miami has outscored Denver 57-48 on 3s in those quarters, but that’s nothing like the unmanageable margin the Nuggets have dealt with in final quarters. The Nuggets have outscored Miami 167-138 in those periods, outshooting the Heat 53% to 39%. The Heat are outscoring Denver 66-45 in fourth quarters in this series, shooting 64% to the Nuggets’ 44% in the final period and holding a 33-9 edge in points off 3-pointers.īut the first three quarters, they’ve trended big-time toward Denver. Hooping at the end of games hasn’t been an issue for Miami in this series. The overall energy for your team and your group, it will give you a little bit of a lift - but it won’t win you the game, because you’ve still got to go out there and hoop.” If you’re on a run, there’s going to be a crazy boost. You know, if the other team is on the run, they are going to give you a little boost.

“No matter what, they are going to be behind you,” Heat guard Kyle Lowry said.

The Heat are in the finals for the second time in four seasons, but are playing their first finals game actually at home since 2014 - the 2020 appearance was in the bubble, with no fans in the buildings for most of that experience and only a few family members for the finals. And 2-1 series leaders, regardless of whether they won Game 3 or not, have taken the title 79% of the time (49 times in 62 past instances). When a finals is tied 1-1, the Game 3 winner has gone on to eventually claim the title 80% of the time (32 times in 40 past instances).

Wednesday’s winner obviously gets the upper hand with a 2-1 series lead, and history will tip in that team’s favor as well.

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